Summary
- Madame Web is predicted to have a worse opening weekend than Morbius.
- However, Madame Web could potentially make $50 million domestically over its opening since it will drop during the five-day Valentine’s Day weekend.
- Despite potentially low box office predictions, if Madame Web’s budget is $80 million, it could still turn a profit, especially with Dakota Johnson’s history of Valentine’s Day box office success.
If only Sony had the same powers as Cassandra “Cassie” Webb (Dakota Johnson), perhaps the film studio could have seen into the future and learned that Madame Web might post the worst opening-weekend for one of their live-action Spider-Man titles. Currently, the Jared Leto-led Morbius holds the record for the worst opening by one of Sony’s Spidey films with only $39 million to show for its first weekend domestically. But Madame Webb is currently tracking to do even worse business.
At the time of this writing, Boxoffice Pro is predicting that Madame Web will make somewhere between $25 million (low) and $35 million (high) over its three-day release. However, the publication does not take into account that Madame Web will open on Wednesday, February 14, in order to celebrate Valentine’s Day. And with those two additional days, if the per-day average holds, Sony’s Spider-Man spin-off is looking at more along the lines of a $50-million opening weekend domestically on the high end.
Meanwhile, Boxoffice Pro’s long-range forecast is predicting Madame Web will make a total of somewhere between $56 million on the low end and $101 million (high) domestically. It all depends on how well the Spidey spin-off holds between its first and second weekends. For instance, Morbius had one of the worst financial drops from its opening weekend to the next at 73.8%.
Caught in Dakota Johnson’s Web?
When all the smoke cleared, Morbius only made $167.5 million for Sony. Surely, the studio is hoping their new, live-action Spidey adventure will make somewhere north of $200 million. However, there is another element in Madame Web’s favor. If the reports of the film’s budget are truly in the $80-million range, the Dakota Johnson-led superhero flick could actually turn a profit, even with marketing and advertising costs.
And Johnson isn’t averse to starring in big, box office flicks on Valentine’s Day. Johnson is famous for having portrayed the lead character of Anastasia Steele in the Fifty Shades of Grey film trilogy. Yes, Madame Web is a completely different cinematic animal, but any competent movie executive could have seen the logic of casting Johnson as a romantic figure in a film — superhero or otherwise — with the intention of it being released on Valentine’s Day. But it’s important for the moviegoing public to remember Johnson won’t be tangled up in a red room of pain like Fifty Shades… Cassie’s web is much less seductive and sensual.
Fifty Shades of Grey opened to $85.2 million over Valentine’s Day weekend back in 2015 en route to a worldwide take of $570 million. Sony would certainly call that number a slam-dunk win for Madame Web, but the superhero adventure is tracking more along the lines of The Marvels — or even worse — at the time of this writing.
