Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
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2024 Oscars Predictions:
Best Supporting Actress
Focus Features / Universal Pictures
Weekly Commentary (Updated Jan. 18, 2024): The supporting actress race can be described in one word: messy.
Three women have landed a nomination from every televised awards ceremony — Emily Blunt (“Oppenheimer”), Danielle Brooks (“The Color Purple”) and Da’Vine Joy Randolph (“The Holdovers”). But as we see almost every year, there’s always a snub of one of those actors that lands (almost) everywhere but still misses in the end. Past snubbed performers include Idris Elba (“Beasts of No Nation”), Jennifer Lopez (“Hustlers”), Daniel Bruhl (“Rush”), Hong Chau (“Downsizing”), and Nicole Kidman (“The Paperboy”). What many of them have in common is they were likely the sole nom for their movie. That’s a challenging obstacle to overcome that many pundits take for granted.
It feels highly improbable that either Blunt or CCA and Golden Globe winner Randolph misses out. However, it’s Brooks I’m most worried about.
Despite delivering the best performance in her film, Brooks may not be as safe as some may be led to believe — unless you feel confident about the film landing in other categories such as costumes, song, or best picture. That also presents a problem for those who have stumbled along the way, such as Penélope Cruz (“Ferrari”), Jodie Foster (“Nyad”), and Julianne Moore (“May December”). However, what helps them is they are all former Oscar winners/nominees, which tends to be the case more times than not for sole-nominated performances (i.e., Christopher Plummer for “All the Money in the World” and Kathy Bates for “Richard Jewell”).
When surprise nominees do miss, those spots tend to be filled with surprise acting nominees from best picture nominated movies (i.e., Alan Alda in “The Aviator” or Marina de Tavira for “Roma”). This bodes well for America Ferrera (“Barbie“), Cara Jade Myers (“Killers of the Flower Moon”), and Sandra Hüller (“The Zone of Interest”). Perhaps even a bit for Erika Alexander (“American Fiction”) and Rosamund Pike (“Saltburn”), if you believe the latter’s film is surprising in best picture.
What’s clear is you can make a compelling case for any of the top 12 names to be included. Which ones are in and out is up to your predictive eye.
In the end, I’ll predict Hüller to make history as the first double nominated actress for two non-English language performances.
Read: Variety’s Awards Circuit for the latest Oscars predictions in all categories.
***The list below is not final and will be updated throughout the awards season.
And the Predicted Nominees Are:
- Danielle Brooks — “The Color Purple” (Warner Bros.)
- America Ferrera — “Barbie” (Warner Bros.)
- Rosamund Pike — “Saltburn” (Amazon MGM Studios)
- Penélope Cruz — “Ferrari” (Neon)
- Cara Jade Myers — “Killers of the Flower Moon” (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures)
Other Top-Tier Possibilities
- Erika Alexander — “American Fiction” (MGM)
- Rachel McAdams — “Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret” (Lionsgate)
- Claire Foy — “All of Us Strangers” (Searchlight Pictures)
- Viola Davis — “Air” (Amazon MGM Studios)
- Taraji P. Henson – “The Color Purple” (Warner Bros.)
- Lily Gladstone — “Killers of the Flower Moon” (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures) **
- Juliette Binoche — “The Taste of Things” (IFC Films/Sapan Studios)
- Leslie Uggams — “American Fiction” (MGM)
- Patricia Clarkson – “Monica” (IFC Films)
- Niecy Nash-Betts — “Origin” (Neon)
Also In Contention
- Scarlett Johansson — “Asteroid City” (Focus Features)
- Issa Rae — “American Fiction” (MGM)
- Vanessa Kirby — “Napoleon” (Apple Original Films/Sony Pictures)
- Rhea Perlman – “Barbie” (Warner Bros.)
- Florence Pugh — “Oppenheimer” (Universal Pictures)
- Anne Hathaway — “Eileen” (Neon)
- Tilda Swinton — “The Killer” (Netflix)
- Halle Bailey — “The Color Purple” (Warner Bros.)
- Maura Tierney — “The Iron Claw” (A24)
- Annie Gonzalez – “Flamin’ Hot” (Hulu/Searchlight Pictures)
Eligible Titles (Alphabetized by Studio)**
** This official list is incomplete, with all release dates not yet confirmed and subject to change.
2022 category winner: Jamie Lee Curtis, “Everything Everywhere All at Once” (A24)
Oscars Predictions Categories
BEST PICTURE | DIRECTOR | BEST ACTOR | BEST ACTRESS | SUPPORTING ACTOR | SUPPORTING ACTRESS | ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY | ADAPTED SCREENPLAY | ANIMATED FEATURE | PRODUCTION DESIGN | CINEMATOGRAPHY | COSTUME DESIGN | FILM EDITING | MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING | SOUND | VISUAL EFFECTS | ORIGINAL SCORE | ORIGINAL SONG | DOCUMENTARY FEATURE | INTERNATIONAL FEATURE | ANIMATED SHORT | DOCUMENTARY SHORT | LIVE ACTION SHORT
About the Academy Awards
The Academy Awards, better known as the Oscars, is Hollywood’s most prestigious artistic award in the film industry. Since 1927, nominees and winners have been selected by members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS). Seventeen branches are represented within the nearly 10,000-person membership. The branches are actors, associates, casting directors, cinematographers, costume designers, directors, documentary, executives, film editors, makeup and hairstylists, marketing and public relations, members-at-large, members-at-large (artists’ representatives), music, producers, production design, short films and feature animation, sound, visual effects and writers.
